Let’s Talk Due Dates
Do you have a big circle around a specific day on your calendar, eagerly anticipating the arrival of your baby since you first learned you were pregnant? It's common to do so, but I'm here to suggest that you plan something fun and distracting for that day. Research shows that only about 4-5% of babies are born on their Estimated Due Date (EDD).
Why are due dates so difficult to predict accurately?
Determining a due date involves several factors: the date of your last menstrual period, which helps estimate ovulation, and the size of your baby during an early ultrasound. These methods aren't exact. For instance, "Naegele's Rule," which many medical professionals use, assumes a 28-day menstrual cycle with ovulation on day 14. Additionally, ultrasounds have a margin of error of +/- 15% when estimating baby weight.
A study in Australia, conducted between 2007 and 2011, calculated due dates for nearly 20,000 pregnant individuals using these factors. The findings revealed that most babies were born within a two-week window on either side of their EDD. The study also noted:
"Expectant mothers should be informed that there is only a 35% chance that they will actually go into labor during the week of their Estimated Date of Birth” (Khambalia, et al. 2001).
Other Factors Influencing Your Due Date
Did you know that genetics can also influence when your baby decides to arrive? Studies have shown that a family history of longer pregnancies is a strong predictor. It might be helpful to talk to your mother, sister, and your baby's father's family to understand their pregnancy durations.
Experts generally agree that there is no such thing as an exact due date. Even an estimated 40-week due date is not precise. It's more realistic to consider a normal range for birth. Approximately 90% of pregnancies naturally last between 37 and 42 weeks.
"There is growing evidence that labour typically begins when the baby sends chemical signals to the mother’s body indicating readiness to be born. If labour hasn't started, it might be because your baby needs more time to develop in the womb.
The concept of 'being overdue' suggests that all babies are 'due' after the same pregnancy length. However, just as not all babies teethe or learn to walk at the same time, not all babies are ready to be born after the same number of weeks in the womb. There is substantial evidence showing variation in this, as in all aspects of human development" (https://www.aims.org.uk/information/item/due-date).
This raises questions about labour induction, especially when it’s suggested for "post dates." Induction of labor is a topic covered in the Complete Birth Prep Package, providing you with all the information needed to make the best decisions for you and your baby.
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