Expecting a Baby in Edinburgh & The Lothians: Why your Due Date is Not Set in Stone
- Joy
- Sep 28
- 4 min read
Updated: Sep 30
Do you have a big circle around your “due date” in the calendar, eagerly waiting for your baby to arrive? Here’s the truth: only around 4–5% of babies are born on their exact due date.
That’s why I often tell parents in my antenatal classes - treat your due date as a day to distract yourself. Plan a takeaway, a movie night, or something fun. Chances are, you’ll still be pregnant, and that’s completely normal.
Why Are Due Dates So Hard to Pin Down?
The estimated due date (EDD) is usually calculated from:
The first day of your last menstrual period, assuming a 28-day cycle with ovulation on day 14.
Or from an early ultrasound scan, which measures your baby’s size.
Both methods are imprecise. Ultrasound, for example, can be off by ±15% when estimating fetal size.
A large Australian study of nearly 20,000 pregnancies found that only 35% of women gave birth during the week of their EDD (Khambalia et al., 2001). Most babies arrived within a two-week window either side.
What Else Affects When Labour Starts?
Genetics: Family history of longer or shorter pregnancies is a strong predictor.
Baby’s readiness: Research suggests labour often begins when the baby releases chemical signals to the mother’s body indicating readiness (AIMS, 2023).
It’s more realistic to think of a “due month” rather than a due date. Over 90% of babies are born between 37 and 42 weeks, which is a normal variation in human development.
“Overdue” and Induction of Labour
The term “overdue” is misleading. Just like babies don’t all crawl, walk or talk at the same age, they’re also ready to be born at different times.
In NHS Lothian and NHS Forth Valley, women are routinely offered induction between 41 and 42 weeks. This comes from NICE guidance (2021), which recommends offering induction at or shortly after 41 weeks to reduce the (already small) risk of stillbirth.
But here’s the nuance:
Induction is an offer, not a rule.
Many women are told “we’ll book you in”, when in reality, you have the right to say yes, no, or “not yet.”
Evidence from Cochrane reviews shows induction at 41 weeks may slightly reduce stillbirth but is also linked to higher rates of interventions such as continuous monitoring, epidural and assisted birth.
Understanding Risk: Relative vs. Absolute
Stillbirth is one of the hardest and most sensitive subjects to talk about, and it’s often the reason induction is offered. But it’s important to put the numbers into perspective.
Relative risk: Studies show the relative risk of stillbirth rises after 41 weeks compared to 40 weeks. This is the figure often quoted in hospital leaflets.
Absolute risk: In real numbers, the risk is still very small. NICE data suggests that at 40 weeks, the risk of stillbirth is about 1 in 1,000 pregnancies. At 41 weeks, it’s about 1–2 in 1,000.
What this means for you: While the risk does increase, the difference is small. Induction may reduce this small risk, but it also brings trade-offs. Understanding both sides helps you make decisions from a place of knowledge rather than fear.
Policy vs. Personal Need
This is where it gets tricky. Hospitals are risk-averse. Sometimes induction is recommended because of your individual health or your baby’s wellbeing. But often it’s offered because of policy, not because your body or baby need it.
Dr Sara Wickham points out that induction rates have risen sharply in recent decades, often without strong evidence to justify every case. She argues that induction is sometimes presented as “routine” when absolute risk remains low.
Dr Rachel Reed reminds us that labour is a physiological process. Babies - like all aspects of human development - are ready at different times. Inducing before your baby or body are ready can create its own problems, sometimes leading to a “cascade of intervention.”
So when induction is suggested, ask:
Is this about my health, or is this about hospital policy?
What happens if I wait?
What are the actual risks for me and my baby?
Asking Questions: The B.R.A.I.N. Tool
A simple tool I teach in classes is B.R.A.I.N. (or as I like to say: “get your BRA out” 😉):
B – Benefits: What are the benefits of induction in my situation?
R – Risks: What are the risks, short and long term?
A – Alternatives: What else could we do?
I – Intuition: What feels right to me?
N – Nothing: What happens if we wait?
This framework helps you turn vague recommendations into clear conversations.
Reframing the Due Date
Instead of seeing your due date as a deadline, view it as the midpoint of a window. Babies come on their own timeline.
So when the day arrives:
Order that curry.
Go for a gentle walk at The Meadows, Callendar Park or around Linlithgow Loch.
Remind yourself your baby isn’t “late” - they’re still cooking.
Final Thoughts
There’s no stopwatch that says labour must begin at exactly 40 weeks. What matters is feeling informed and supported in making the choices that are right for you.
In my antenatal classes in Linlithgow, I support parents across West Lothian, Falkirk and Central Scotland to understand due dates, induction policies, and how to make confident, evidence-based choices.
👉 Ready to feel calm and empowered about your options? Join my in person antenatal course and learn how to navigate due dates, induction and beyond with confidence.
References
Khambalia, A. et al. (2001). Predicting delivery date by ultrasound and last menstrual period in early pregnancy. BMJ.
NICE (2021). Inducing Labour: Clinical Guideline NG207. National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Link
AIMS (2023). Due Dates. Link
Cochrane Pregnancy & Childbirth (2020). Induction of labour at or beyond 37 weeks. Cochrane Library.
NHS Lothian. Induction of Labour: Patient Information Leaflet.
NHS Forth Valley. Induction of Labour: Patient Leaflet.
Wickham, S. (2018). In Your Own Time: How Western medicine controls the start of labour and why this needs to stop.
Reed, R. (2018). Why Induction Matters.
Wickham, S. Blog: Why Induction Rates are Rising
Reed, R. Blog: Induction
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